The Russian invasion of Ukraine is threatening the world’s supply of agricultural commodities and fertilizer inputs, increasing energy prices, and disrupting the global supply chain.

Why it Matters: Ukraine is the world’s top five largest producers of wheat, a large producer of corn, and leads the world in sunflower and rapeseed exports. Russia produces a significant percentage of the world’s fertilizer inputs including ammonium nitrate and potash.

Market Implications:

  • The conflict will delay the Ukrainian planting and harvesting seasons. Conditions should remain positive for commodity prices for the remainder of the year.

  • U.S. corn exports are likely to benefit in the short term, and the demand for soybeans and soybean oil is expected to increase. 

Yes, but: Higher grain prices will be offset by higher fuel and fertilizer costs. Brent crude prices are expected to remain above $100 per barrel for the foreseeable future. Fertilizer prices are expected to keep rising as a result of production disruptions in both Russia and Ukraine, supply chain pressures, and trade sanctions.

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